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Hurricane AMANDA (Text)


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HURRICANE AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012014
200 AM PDT MON MAY 26 2014

Amanda has not changed much during the last several hours.  The
eye of the hurricane, although slightly ragged in appearance at
times, remains evident with a ring of cold cloud tops surrounding
the center.  Earlier microwave data showed a pronounced dry slot
wrapping into the eastern portion of the circulation, however, the
latest images suggest it might be, at least temporally, moistening
back up in that area.  An average of the latest Dvorak
classifications from TAFB, SAB, and ADT values from UW-CIMSS support
an initial wind speed of 120 kt.

The hurricane is expected to weaken at a rapid pace beginning
later today due to the combined influences of southerly to
southwesterly shear, dry air intrusion, and decreasing sea surface
temperatures.  Amanda is forecast to weaken to a remnant low in 4
to 5 days, when most of the models show the low- and mid-level
centers of the cyclone decoupling.  The NHC intensity forecast is an
update of the previous one and is in line with the majority of the
guidance.

The system is moving slowly north-northwestward, and the latest
initial motion estimate is 340/4.  This general motion is predicted
to continue for the next 48 hours while the hurricane remains
embedded in the flow between a trough to its west and a ridge to its
east over Mexico.  Beyond a couple of days, the weakening tropical
cyclone is expected to drift northeastward or become stationary when
it is forecast to be more influenced by the low-level steering flow.
The NHC track forecast is nudged to the west to be in better
agreement with the latest consensus aids, TVCE and FSSE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/0900Z 13.1N 111.6W  120 KT 140 MPH
 12H  26/1800Z 13.8N 111.8W  105 KT 120 MPH
 24H  27/0600Z 14.8N 112.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  27/1800Z 15.7N 112.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  28/0600Z 16.3N 112.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  29/0600Z 16.9N 112.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  30/0600Z 17.3N 112.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  31/0600Z 17.8N 111.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Jul-2014 12:09:13 UTC