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Hurricane AMANDA (Text)


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HURRICANE AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012014
800 PM PDT SUN MAY 25 2014

Since Amanda peaked in intensity earlier today, there has been
some erosion of deep convection in the southwestern quadrant
of the cyclone, likely due to onset of moderate south-southwesterly
wind shear.  A pronounced dry slot is also noted wrapping around the
southern half of the circulation in geostationary and microwave
imagery. Satellite intensity estimates have decreased slightly, and
the initial intensity is set to 125 kt, based on blend of Final-T
and CI numbers.

The initial motion is 335/03.  The cyclone is located between a
mid-level ridge to the east-northeast and a mid-/upper-level trough
to the west.  A weak deep-layer south-southeasterly to southerly
flow between these two features should steer Amanda north-
northwestward and then northward during the next few days. A turn
toward the north-northeast is forecast in about 72 hours when the
aforementioned mid- to upper-level trough approaches the
cyclone. After that time, a much weaker Amanda should stall or
begin to drift westward or southwestward as a shallow feature in the
trade wind flow.  The model guidance this cycle has shifted westward
again, and the official forecast is adjusted in that direction.  It
lies on the eastern side of the guidance envelope, nearly midway
between the previous forecast and the multi-model consensus TVCE
through 72 hours and south of the previous forecast late in the
period.

Moderate to strong south-southwesterly vertical wind shear,
combined with gradually decreasing sea surface temperatures along
the forecast track, should cause Amanda to quickly weaken during the
next few days. In about 3 days, the model guidance shows the low-
and mid-level circulations of Amanda decoupling as the cyclone
interacts with the trough to its west.  The entrainment of
substantially drier and more stable air should then cause whatever
remains of Amanda to degenerate into a remnant low by day 5. The
official forecast is slightly lower than the previous one in the
short term and close to the multi-model consensus ICON.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/0300Z 12.6N 111.4W  125 KT 145 MPH
 12H  26/1200Z 13.0N 111.6W  110 KT 125 MPH
 24H  27/0000Z 14.0N 111.9W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  27/1200Z 15.0N 112.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  28/0000Z 15.9N 112.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  29/0000Z 16.6N 112.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  30/0000Z 17.4N 111.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  31/0000Z 18.0N 111.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

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Page last modified: Sunday, 23-Nov-2014 12:09:29 UTC