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Hurricane AMANDA (Text)

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HURRICANE AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012014
200 PM PDT SUN MAY 25 2014

Conventional and microwave satellite imagery indicate that Amanda
likely peaked in intensity around 1200 UTC this morning and has
started weakening since then. The CDO feature has decreased in size
and become more ragged looking during the past few hours, and the
small eye is becoming less distinct and cloud-filled in visible
imagery. A 1459 UTC SSMI/S microwave image revealed that Amanda
possessed a pinhole eye, which usually means that an eyewall
replacement cycle is not far behind. The initial intensity has been
decreased to 130 kt based on a blend of final T-numbers from TAFB
and SAB ranging from T5.5/102 kt to T6.5/127 kt. Although UW-CIMSS
ADT estimates remain at T6.9/137 kt, the raw values have dropped to
T6.1/117 kt, which further supports lowering the initial intensity.

Amanda is now moving northward to north-northwestward or 350/04 kt.
The hurricane is forecast to maintain this general motion for the
next 3 days or so as the cyclone remains embedded in southerly
steering flow between a broad deep-layer trough to its west and a
weak mid-level ridge to its east. After that time, Amanda is
forecast to weaken fairly significantly and become a shallow cyclone
that could briefly stall before turning westward or southwestward
when it comes under the influence of a large low-level subtropical
ridge to its north. The model guidance suite has shifted westward
this cycle, including the consensus model TVCE. However, the latter
model is biased by a more westerly track of the UKMET model that
initialized a very weak cyclone instead of a more robust category 4
hurricane. Therefore, the official track forecast remains similar to
the previous track and lies to right of TVCE, near the eastern
portion of the guidance envelope and closer to the ECMWF model.

Cold upwelling and occasional intrusions of dry mid-level air should
slowly erode the inner-core convection over the next 24 hours or so.
An eyewall replacement cycle is also possible, which would act to
hasten the weakening process. By day 2 and beyond, the combination
of cooler water, drier air, and increasing southerly vertical wind
shear should induce more rapid weakening, and Amanda is forecast to
degenerate into a non-convective remnant low by day 5. The NHC
intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and the
intensity consensus model IVCN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/2100Z 12.3N 111.3W  130 KT 150 MPH
 12H  26/0600Z 12.8N 111.4W  115 KT 135 MPH
 24H  26/1800Z 13.6N 111.6W  105 KT 120 MPH
 36H  27/0600Z 14.6N 111.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  27/1800Z 15.6N 111.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  28/1800Z 17.1N 111.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  29/1800Z 18.0N 110.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  30/1800Z 18.4N 110.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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