Hurricane AMANDA

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HURRICANE AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012014
200 AM PDT SUN MAY 25 2014

Amanda is still rapidly intensifying.  The eye has become more
distinct and a large ring of cloud tops colder than -70C
surround the center.  The Dvorak classifications from TAFB
and SAB are 6.5/127 kt and 6.0/115 kt, respectively.  A blend of
these estimates and the latest ADT values from UW-CIMSS support
increasing the initial wind speed to 120 kt, making Amanda a
category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

The major hurricane could gain some more strength today while the
atmospheric and oceanic environments remain conducive for
intensification.  After that time, however, southerly shear is
expected to increase and that should start the weakening process.
The GFS and ECMWF models show Amanda beginning to tilt vertically
in response to the shear in about 24 hours, with the low- and
mid-level centers eventually decoupling.  Gradually decreasing sea
surface temperatures and drier mid-level air should also aid in the
weakening trend.  The NHC intensity forecast is a little above the
previous one in the short term to account for the higher initial
wind speed, but is otherwise unchanged and follows the intensity
model consensus IVCN.

The cyclone is moving slowly west-northwestward, with the
initial motion estimate the same as before, 295/4.  A turn to the
northwest is expected today followed by a northward motion tonight
as Amanda gets embedded in the flow between a mid- to upper-level
trough to its west and a mid-level ridge to its east.  A
northeastward turn is predicted in about 4 days when the trough to
the west of Amanda gets closer to the system.  The NHC track
forecast is very close to the previous one and near the latest
FSSE and TVCE guidance.

Based on the current intensity of the system, Amanda is the second
strongest May hurricane in the eastern Pacific basin on record,
behind Hurricane Adolph in 2001.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/0900Z 11.7N 110.9W  120 KT 140 MPH
 12H  25/1800Z 11.9N 111.2W  125 KT 145 MPH
 24H  26/0600Z 12.5N 111.3W  120 KT 140 MPH
 36H  26/1800Z 13.4N 111.4W  105 KT 120 MPH
 48H  27/0600Z 14.3N 111.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  28/0600Z 15.6N 111.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  29/0600Z 16.4N 111.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  30/0600Z 17.5N 110.0W   30 KT  35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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