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Hurricane AMANDA (Text)

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HURRICANE AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012014
200 PM PDT SAT MAY 24 2014

Amanda's eye is becoming more apparent in visible imagery.  The
hurricane has a fairly small central dense overcast with one
prominent convective band curving around the western and northern
side of the circulation.  Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB are
T4.0/65 kt, and the objective ADT has been steady around 70 kt for
the past few hours.  The initial intensity is raised to 70 kt based
on the ADT estimate and the development of an eye in visible
imagery.

Amanda likely has another 36 hours or so of favorable conditions
for intensification before southerly vertical wind shear begins to
increase.  The rate of intensification may have slowed down just a
bit, but there's no real good reason not to expect further
strengthening in the short term.  One potential limiting factor
could be upwelling of colder ocean water due to the slow movement of
the hurricane during the next few days.  The intensity guidance has
backed off a bit on this cycle, with many of the models peaking the
maximum winds just below major hurricane strength.  Only the Florida
State Superensemble explicitly shows Amanda becoming a major
hurricane in 24-36 hours.  Nonetheless, Amanda is forecast to be
right around the major hurricane threshold of 100 kt in a day or
so.  After 36 hours, higher vertical shear should induce a fairly
fast weakening trend, and the NHC forecast now shows Amanda
becoming a tropical depression by day 5.

Amanda's motion remains 290/4 kt.  The hurricane should begin
turning northwestward within 24 hours and then northward by 36
hours as the mid-level ridge over Mexico weakens.  A slightly
faster motion may develop in about 48 hours due to a
restrengthening of the mid-level ridge over Mexico and an
amplification of a mid-level low near 130W.  The NHC forecast has
again been shifted a bit to the right toward the tracks of the
GFS and ECMWF, both of which lie along the eastern edge of the
guidance envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/2100Z 11.4N 110.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  25/0600Z 11.5N 110.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  25/1800Z 12.0N 111.1W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  26/0600Z 12.6N 111.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  26/1800Z 13.5N 111.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  27/1800Z 15.0N 111.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  28/1800Z 16.0N 111.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  29/1800Z 16.5N 111.0W   30 KT  35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

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