Tropical Depression ONE-E

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012014
800 PM PDT THU MAY 22 2014

The convective appearance of the depression is somewhat disheveled
this evening, as the coldest cloud tops are located north and
east of the estimated center position. The initial intensity is held
at 25 kt based on the latest Dvorak estimate from SAB. The
satellite presentation, satellite analyses from UW-CIMSS, and the
SHIPS model suggest that some southerly and westerly shear
associated with a mid/upper-level trough well to the north is
currently affecting the cyclone. During the next day or so, this
environment should support only gradual intensification. As the
trough moves away the shear should decrease, which should allow for
more strengthening later in the period while the cyclone is over
warm waters. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous
one through 72 hours, and has been adjusted upward toward the IVCN
intensity consensus after that time, and is close to a blend of the
SHIPS and LGEM models.

The center of the depression has been difficult to locate with
geostationary and microwave imagery. However, a blend of satellite
fixes and continuity yields an initial motion of 290/04. The cyclone
is expected to move slowly west-northwestward for the next couple of
days, as a mid-level ridge to the east weakens and the trough north
of the depression moves eastward. Through 48 hours the new official
forecast is a little faster than the previous one and is close to a
blend of the GFS and ECMWF models. Later in the period much of the
guidance has shifted northward, with the GFS, GEFS ensemble mean,
and GFDL taking the cyclone sharply poleward by day 5 as a ridge
rebuilds to the east. The HWRF also shows a northward turn but is
slower, while the ECMWF shows a much slower motion farther to the
east of the rest of the guidance. Given the large shift in the
guidance this cycle, only small adjustments have been made to the
NHC forecast late in the period. The NHC track is close to the
previous one at days 3 and 4, and has been adjusted a little to the
north and east at day 5, but remains well south of the multi-model
consensus at that time.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/0300Z 10.6N 107.8W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  23/1200Z 10.8N 108.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  24/0000Z 11.1N 109.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  24/1200Z 11.4N 109.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  25/0000Z 11.6N 110.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  26/0000Z 11.8N 110.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  27/0000Z 12.0N 111.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  28/0000Z 12.5N 112.5W   60 KT  70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brennan

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