Hurricane GONZALO

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BULLETIN
HURRICANE GONZALO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  22A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
800 PM AST FRI OCT 17 2014

...BERMUDA IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE LARGE EYE OF DANGEROUS
HURRICANE GONZALO...
...DAMAGING WINDS AND A LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE EXPECTED
AGAIN AFTER THE EYE PASSES...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.2N 64.9W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.08 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS EFFECT FOR...
* ARNOLDS COVE TO CHAPELS COVE

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RESUME WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

PEOPLE SHOULD NOT VENTURE OUT INTO THE CALM PERIOD OF THE EYE SINCE
STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL RETURN QUICKLY AFTER THE EYE PASSES
TO THE NORTH OF BERMUDA IN A COUPLE OF HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF THE EYE OF HURRICANE
GONZALO WAS LOCATED BY THE BERMUDA RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 32.2 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 64.9 WEST. GONZALO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H. A CONTINUED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH
AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE EYE OF GONZALO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER
BERMUDA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  GONZALO IS A STRONG CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST
AFTER GONZALO MOVES PAST BERMUDA TONIGHT. FASTER WEAKENING IS
FORECAST TO BEGIN ON SATURDAY ONCE GONZALO MOVES OVER COOL WATERS.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.  A SUSTAINED WIND OF 98 MPH...158 KM/H AND A GUST TO
134 MPH...215 KM/H WERE RECENTLY REPORTED AT AN ELEVATED OBSERVATION
SITE AT COMMISSIONER'S POINT BERMUDA.  A SUSTAINED WIND OF 90 MPH...
145 KM/H AND A GUST TO 130 MPH...209 KM/H WERE RECENTLY REPORTED AT
AN ELEVATED OBSERVATION SITE AT ST. DAVIDS BERMUDA NEAR THE AIRPORT.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON REPORTS FROM AN
AMATEUR RADIO OPERATOR ON BERMUDA IS 951 MB...28.08 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RESUME ON BERMUDA IN AN
HOUR OR TWO AFTER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE EYEWALL PASSES NORTH
OF THE ISLAND. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WIND SPEEDS ATOP AND ON
THE WINDWARD SIDES OF HILLY TERRAIN ARE OFTEN UP TO 30 PERCENT
STRONGER THAN AT THE SURFACE...AND IN SOME ELEVATED LOCATIONS CAN BE
EVEN GREATER.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IN BERMUDA. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES.

RAINFALL...GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER BERMUDA.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO ARE STILL AFFECTING
PORTIONS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE NORTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO
AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...AND BERMUDA. SWELLS WILL
SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST TONIGHT. THESE SWELLS
WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

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