Hurricane GONZALO

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BULLETIN
HURRICANE GONZALO ADVISORY NUMBER  24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
500 AM AST SAT OCT 18 2014

...GONZALO QUICKLY MOVING AWAY FROM BERMUDA...
...FORECAST TO PASS NEAR THE COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND TONIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.7N 63.2W
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM NNE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 980 MI...1580 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR
BERMUDA TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS EFFECT FOR...
* ARNOLDS COVE TO CHAPELS COVE NEWFOUNDLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GONZALO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.2 WEST. GONZALO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 22 MPH...35 KM/H...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND A FURTHER INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS FORECAST TONIGHT...WITH ADDITIONAL ACCELERATION LIKELY ON
SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF GONZALO WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE AWAY FROM BERMUDA THIS MORNING AND PASS JUST SOUTHEAST OF
NEWFOUNDLAND TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND GONZALO
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE ON SUNDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM. A WIND GUST OF 46 MPH...74 KM/H...WAS RECENTLY
REPORTED AT THE BERMUDA AIRPORT. A WIND GUST OF 54 MPH...86 KM/H...
WAS RECENTLY REPORTED AT AN ELEVATED OBSERVATION SITE AT
COMMISSIONER'S POINT BERMUDA.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 955 MB...28.20 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE...ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...WILL CONTINUE ON BERMUDA EARLY THIS MORNING. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA IN
NEWFOUNDLAND BY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.

STORM SURGE...WATER LEVELS ON BERMUDA WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY.

RAINFALL...RAIN WILL BE ENDING THIS MORNING ON BERMUDA AS GONZALO
MOVES AWAY FROM THE ISLAND.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO ARE STILL AFFECTING
PORTIONS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE NORTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO
AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...PORTIONS OF
THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST...AND BERMUDA. SWELLS WILL SPREAD
NORTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF ATLANTIC CANADA TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

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