Hurricane GONZALO

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BULLETIN
HURRICANE GONZALO ADVISORY NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
1100 AM AST THU OCT 16 2014

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS GONZALO A LITTLE STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.1N 68.6W
ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE GONZALO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.6 WEST.  GONZALO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H.  A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER
TODAY.  A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH AN ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN
SPEED IS FORECAST THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...
THE CENTER OF GONZALO WILL BE NEAR BERMUDA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

DATA FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/H...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS.  GONZALO IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE
COMMON IN MAJOR HURRICANES...AND ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR WITH GONZALO
THROUGH TONIGHT.  SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST ON FRIDAY...BUT
GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO BE A DANGEROUS HURRICANE WHEN IT MOVES NEAR
BERMUDA.  STEADY WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN BY LATE FRIDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150
MILES...240 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER
IS 940 MB...27.76 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH BERMUDA ON
FRIDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT OR
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WIND SPEEDS ATOP AND
ON THE WINDWARD SIDES OF HILLY TERRAIN ARE OFTEN UP TO 30 PERCENT
STRONGER THAN AT THE SURFACE...AND IN SOME ELEVATED LOCATIONS CAN BE
EVEN GREATER.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IN BERMUDA.  NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

RAINFALL...GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER BERMUDA.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE NORTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS.  SWELLS WILL REACH
MUCH OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AND BERMUDA TODAY.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS.  FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS
FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

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