Tropical Storm GONZALO

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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GONZALO ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
500 AM AST MON OCT 13 2014

...GONZALO TO PASS THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TODAY...
...RAIN BANDS ALREADY MOVING INTO GUADELOUPE...ANTIGUA...AND
BARBUDA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 60.9W
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM ESE OF ANTIGUA
ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM NE OF GUADELOUPE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GUADELOUPE...DESIRADE...LES SAINTES...AND MARIE GALANTE
* ST. MARTIN
* ST. BARTHELEMY
* ST. MAARTIN
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* BARBUDA
* ANTIGUA
* ANGUILLA
* ST. KITTS AND NEVIS
* MONTSERRAT
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GONZALO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.9 WEST. GONZALO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H.  A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST BY TONIGHT.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
GONZALO WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TODAY...AND NEAR
OR OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND GONZALO IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT OR TUESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF THE
WARNING AREA IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TODAY.  HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY....WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THIS EVENING.

RAINFALL...GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...BRITISH
AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO WILL AFFECT THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
FROM DOMINICA NORTHWARD TODAY.  SWELLS WILL REACH THE U.S. AND
BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS BY THIS AFTERNOON. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY
TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

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