Tropical Storm GONZALO

ZCZC MIATCPAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GONZALO ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
1100 PM AST SUN OCT 12 2014

...GONZALO EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN WHILE IT MOVES THROUGH THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 60.2W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM ENE OF GUADELOUPE
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM ESE OF ANTIGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GUADELOUPE...DESIRADE...LES SAINTES...AND MARIE GALANTE
* ST. MARTIN
* ST. BARTHELEMY
* ST. MAARTIN
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* BARBUDA
* ANTIGUA
* ANGUILLA
* ST. KITTS AND NEVIS
* MONTSERRAT
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE IN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...
INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GONZALO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.2 WEST. GONZALO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST BY TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF GONZALO
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND MONDAY...AND
APPROACH THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO ON MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
GONZALO IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY EARLY TUESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH
AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY MONDAY EVENING....MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS.

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD THROUGH PORTIONS
OF THE WARNING AREA IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND
MONDAY.

RAINFALL...GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...BRITISH
AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO WILL AFFECT THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM DOMINICA NORTHWARD...AND REACH THE
U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THESE SWELLS
ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

NNNN