Hurricane GONZALO

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HURRICANE GONZALO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
1500 UTC WED OCT 15 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR BERMUDA THIS
AFTERNOON.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N  68.0W AT 15/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN   5 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT  10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  949 MB
EYE DIAMETER   5 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  25SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT.......110NE  80SE  80SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 135SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N  68.0W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.2N  67.7W

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 24.6N  68.7W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE  80SE  80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 26.3N  68.9W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE  80SE  80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 28.6N  68.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 31.6N  66.2W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  80SE  70SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 160SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 40.6N  60.8W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE  80SW  70NW.
34 KT...200NE 220SE 150SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 50.5N  46.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 54.0N  24.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.5N  68.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


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