Hurricane GONZALO

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HURRICANE GONZALO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
0900 UTC WED OCT 15 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N  67.3W AT 15/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT  11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  954 MB
EYE DIAMETER  10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  15SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT.......100NE  60SE  70SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 135SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N  67.3W AT 15/0900Z
AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.6N  67.0W

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 24.0N  68.3W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE  80SE  80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 25.5N  68.9W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE  80SE  80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 27.3N  68.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 29.9N  67.1W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 37.5N  62.8W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE  80SW  70NW.
34 KT...200NE 220SE 150SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 48.5N  52.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 54.0N  30.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.9N  67.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


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