Hurricane GONZALO

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HURRICANE GONZALO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
0300 UTC WED OCT 15 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR
BERMUDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.2N  66.6W AT 15/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT  11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  954 MB
EYE DIAMETER  10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  15SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  25SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT.......100NE  50SE  70SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.2N  66.6W AT 15/0300Z
AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.8N  66.2W

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 23.4N  67.6W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 24.9N  68.5W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 26.3N  68.7W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 28.5N  67.7W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 110SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 34.7N  64.1W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  90SE  70SW  70NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 130SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 45.1N  56.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 52.5N  42.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.2N  66.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN


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