Tropical Storm EDOUARD

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TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
500 AM AST SAT SEP 13 2014

Edouard is gradually intensifying as a prominent curved band winds
most of the way around the tropical storm. However, the convective
cloud tops are warming and the central dense overcast is a bit
skeletal.  Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB as well as the
CIMSS Advanced Dvorak Technique have increased and all indicate
maximum winds of around 45 kt, which is the initial intensity.
Edouard is still being affected by 15-20 kt of vertical shear,
primarily being induced the southwesterly flow around a very large
tropical upper-tropospheric trough to its west. As Edouard moves
poleward of the trough axis within the next day or so, the shear
will diminish.  As the waters the system will traverse are a quite
warm 29C, only the somewhat dry atmosphere will not be conducive for
a more rapid intensification.  Edouard is expected to become a
hurricane in a couple of days.  After recurvature in three to four
days, the storm motion and shear vectors are likely to align which
should allow Edouard to maintain its intensity through day 5. The
NHC wind speed forecast is nearly the same as that in the previous
advisory and is based upon a blend of the LGEM statistical model and
the GFDL and HWRF dynamical models.

A GCOM/AMSR2 microwave pass helped to locate the center of Edouard
and also indicated that the system was tilted northward with height
because of the vertical shear.  Edouard is moving toward the west-
northwest around 13 kt, under the influence of a mid-level ridge
over the central Atlantic. In about 3 to 4 days, the cyclone will
respond to a break in the ridge by recurving and then accelerating
toward the northeast.  The track guidance is tightly clustered
through the whole forecast period.  The NHC track forecast is based
upon the TVCA multi-model ensemble and is just to the east of the
previous track prediction through 48 hours and just west thereafter.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/0900Z 20.7N  46.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  13/1800Z 21.7N  47.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  14/0600Z 23.1N  49.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  14/1800Z 24.7N  51.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  15/0600Z 26.1N  54.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  16/0600Z 29.5N  57.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  17/0600Z 33.5N  56.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  18/0600Z 38.5N  50.0W   75 KT  85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Landsea

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