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NOAA NOAA United States Department of Commerce

Tropical Depression FOUR


ZCZC MIAPWSAT4 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   1        
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042014               
2100 UTC SAT AUG 23 2014                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WAS LOCATED NEAR    
LATITUDE 21.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
NORFOLK NAS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
 
NORFOLK VA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
 
GREENSBORO NC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
RALEIGH NC     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  11(13)
 
CHARLOTTE NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  14(17)
MOREHEAD CITY  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
MOREHEAD CITY  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
WILMINGTON NC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  14(19)
WILMINGTON NC  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
 
COLUMBIA SC    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)
 
MYRTLE BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  15(21)
MYRTLE BEACH   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
CHARLESTON SC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)  12(19)
CHARLESTON SC  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
CHARLESTON SC  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
AUGUSTA GA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)
 
SAVANNAH GA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   9(15)
SAVANNAH GA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
MAYPORT NS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   9(18)
MAYPORT NS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
JACKSONVILLE   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   7(14)
 
DAYTONA BEACH  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  12(15)   8(23)
DAYTONA BEACH  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
DAYTONA BEACH  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
ORLANDO FL     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  10(14)   5(19)
ORLANDO FL     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
COCOA BEACH FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  14(20)   7(27)
COCOA BEACH FL 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)
COCOA BEACH FL 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
PATRICK AFB    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  13(19)   7(26)
PATRICK AFB    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)
PATRICK AFB    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
FT PIERCE FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)  12(22)   5(27)
FT PIERCE FL   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)
FT PIERCE FL   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
W PALM BEACH   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)  10(12)  10(22)   3(25)
W PALM BEACH   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)
W PALM BEACH   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
MIAMI FL       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   7( 9)   7(16)   2(18)
MIAMI FL       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)
 
MARATHON FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)   1( 8)
 
KEY WEST FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)
 
MARCO ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)   1( 9)
 
FT MYERS FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   2(10)
 
VENICE FL      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   2( 8)
 
TAMPA FL       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   3( 9)
 
CEDAR KEY FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   2( 7)
 
TALLAHASSEE FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
ST MARKS FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
GRAND BAHAMA   34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   4( 6)  22(28)  14(42)   3(45)
GRAND BAHAMA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   7(13)   2(15)
GRAND BAHAMA   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)
 
NEW PROVIDENCE 34  X   2( 2)   5( 7)  13(20)  21(41)   5(46)   1(47)
NEW PROVIDENCE 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   9(11)   2(13)   X(13)
NEW PROVIDENCE 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
ANDROS         34  X   1( 1)   5( 6)  10(16)  12(28)   3(31)   1(32)
ANDROS         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
ANDROS         64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
GREAT EXUMA    34  1  10(11)  13(24)  10(34)   7(41)   2(43)   X(43)
GREAT EXUMA    50  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)   3( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
GREAT EXUMA    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
SAN SALVADOR   34  4  51(55)  12(67)   6(73)   3(76)   X(76)   X(76)
SAN SALVADOR   50  X  10(10)   8(18)   5(23)   3(26)   X(26)   X(26)
SAN SALVADOR   64  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
MAYAGUANA      34 29   2(31)   2(33)   2(35)   3(38)   X(38)   X(38)
 
GRAND TURK     34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
CAMAGUEY       34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
 
GUANTANAMO BAY 34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BRENNAN                                                  
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