Tropical Depression FOUR

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BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042014
500 AM AST SUN AUG 24 2014

...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.9N 73.3W
ABOUT 40 MI...60 KM NNW OF MAYAGUANA ISLAND
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM ESE OF LONG ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED
ISLAND...LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED
ISLANDS...AS WELL AS FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG
ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS SYSTEM.  A TROPICAL STORM WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR
THIS AREA LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.3 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED
BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
LATER TODAY AND MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE
DEPRESSION WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
THROUGH MONDAY.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
TODAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS...AND THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF UP TO 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA...
WHERE THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE WARNING AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

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