| HOME | ARCHIVES | FORECASTS | IMAGERY | ABOUT NHC | RECONNAISSANCE |

---

Hurricane CRISTOBAL (Text)

ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

HURRICANE CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042014
1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

The center of Cristobal is partially exposed to the northwest of the
deep convection. Analyses from UW-CIMSS and the SHIPS model show
about 20 kt of west-northwesterly shear over Cristobal and dry air
has wrapped into the southwestern quadrant of the circulation as the
cyclone interacts with a mid/upper-level trough to its west. The
initial intensity remains 65 kt based on data from the last NOAA
Hurricane Hunter aircraft mission. Model guidance indicates that the
upper-level winds will become less hostile during the next day or so
as Cristobal moves underneath and then north of the aforementioned
trough, which should allow for some intensification. The NHC
forecast shows Cristobal peaking in 36-48 hours in agreement with
the latest IVCN intensity consensus. After that time, Cristobal
will be moving over cooler waters and into a higher shear
environment, which should result in the system losing tropical
characteristics in about 3 days. However, as this occurs the global
models show Cristobal moving in a favorable position for baroclinic
intensification ahead of a mid-latitude trough. This should result
in Cristobal transitioning to a powerful extratropical cyclone over
the north Atlantic late in the period.

The initial motion estimate is 010/10, as Cristobal is currently
being pulled slowly northward by the mid/upper-level trough situated
east of Florida. During the next day or so Cristobal will begin
moving north-northeastward around the western side of the Atlantic
subtropical ridge. Then the cyclone should accelerate into the
mid-latitude westerlies during the remainder of the forecast period.
Overall, the track model guidance remains in good agreement on this
scenario. The new NHC track has been shifted a little to the west,
or left, of the previous one through 48 hours and lies along the
eastern edge of the guidance envelope. After that time, the NHC
forecast is largely an update of the previous one and is close to
the multi-model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/1500Z 27.2N  71.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  27/0000Z 29.4N  71.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  27/1200Z 31.9N  70.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  28/0000Z 33.9N  69.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  28/1200Z 36.4N  65.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  29/1200Z 43.0N  51.5W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  30/1200Z 50.0N  37.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  31/1200Z 58.0N  26.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Brennan

NNNN