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NOAA NOAA United States Department of Commerce

Hurricane ARTHUR


ZCZC MIAPWSAT1 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
                                                                    
HURRICANE ARTHUR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  12                
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012014               
2100 UTC THU JUL 03 2014                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ARTHUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE   
33.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H.                                         
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CAPE RACE NFLD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
ILE ST PIERRE  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  15(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 
BURGEO NFLD    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  31(34)   X(34)   X(34)
BURGEO NFLD    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
PTX BASQUES    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)  38(46)   X(46)   X(46)
PTX BASQUES    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)   X(11)   X(11)
PTX BASQUES    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
EDDY POINT NS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)  42(42)  18(60)   X(60)   X(60)
EDDY POINT NS  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)  12(19)   X(19)   X(19)
EDDY POINT NS  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
SYDNEY NS      34  X   X( X)   X( X)  20(20)  31(51)   X(51)   X(51)
SYDNEY NS      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  12(13)   X(13)   X(13)
SYDNEY NS      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
SABLE ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)  21(21)   4(25)   X(25)   X(25)
 
HALIFAX NS     34  X   X( X)   5( 5)  72(77)   3(80)   X(80)   X(80)
HALIFAX NS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)  34(34)   2(36)   X(36)   X(36)
HALIFAX NS     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
YARMOUTH NS    34  X   X( X)  31(31)  55(86)   X(86)   X(86)   X(86)
YARMOUTH NS    50  X   X( X)   3( 3)  49(52)   X(52)   X(52)   X(52)
YARMOUTH NS    64  X   X( X)   X( X)  18(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)
 
MONCTON NB     34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  51(54)   4(58)   X(58)   X(58)
MONCTON NB     50  X   X( X)   X( X)  19(19)   3(22)   X(22)   X(22)
MONCTON NB     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   3( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
ST JOHN NB     34  X   X( X)   6( 6)  52(58)   1(59)   X(59)   X(59)
ST JOHN NB     50  X   X( X)   X( X)  22(22)   1(23)   X(23)   X(23)
ST JOHN NB     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
EASTPORT ME    34  X   X( X)  10(10)  38(48)   1(49)   X(49)   X(49)
EASTPORT ME    50  X   X( X)   X( X)  16(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)
EASTPORT ME    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
BAR HARBOR ME  34  X   X( X)  15(15)  18(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)
BAR HARBOR ME  50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
AUGUSTA ME     34  X   X( X)  10(10)   7(17)   1(18)   X(18)   X(18)
 
PORTLAND ME    34  X   X( X)  12(12)   4(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 
CONCORD NH     34  X   1( 1)   7( 8)   2(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
BOSTON MA      34  X   2( 2)  22(24)   1(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)
BOSTON MA      50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
HYANNIS MA     34  X   4( 4)  61(65)   X(65)   X(65)   X(65)   X(65)
HYANNIS MA     50  X   X( X)  23(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)
HYANNIS MA     64  X   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
NANTUCKET MA   34  X   4( 4)  77(81)   1(82)   X(82)   X(82)   X(82)
NANTUCKET MA   50  X   X( X)  44(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)
NANTUCKET MA   64  X   X( X)  16(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 
PROVIDENCE RI  34  X   4( 4)  29(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)
PROVIDENCE RI  50  X   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
HARTFORD CT    34  X   3( 3)   8(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
MONTAUK POINT  34  X   6( 6)  34(40)   X(40)   X(40)   X(40)   X(40)
MONTAUK POINT  50  X   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
NEW YORK CITY  34  X   7( 7)   5(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
NEWARK NJ      34  X   5( 5)   3( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
TRENTON NJ     34  X   5( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
ATLANTIC CITY  34  1  15(16)   1(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 
BALTIMORE MD   34  1   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
DOVER DE       34  2   7( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
ANNAPOLIS MD   34  2   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
WASHINGTON DC  34  2   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
OCEAN CITY MD  34  2  38(40)   X(40)   X(40)   X(40)   X(40)   X(40)
OCEAN CITY MD  50  X   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
RICHMOND VA    34  2   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
NORFOLK NAS    34 25  24(49)   X(49)   X(49)   X(49)   X(49)   X(49)
NORFOLK NAS    50  1   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
NORFOLK VA     34 38  23(61)   X(61)   X(61)   X(61)   X(61)   X(61)
NORFOLK VA     50  2   5( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
NORFOLK VA     64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
WALLOPS CDA    34  2  37(39)   X(39)   X(39)   X(39)   X(39)   X(39)
WALLOPS CDA    50  1   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
RALEIGH NC     34  2   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
CAPE HATTERAS  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
CAPE HATTERAS  50 92   6(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)
CAPE HATTERAS  64 61  19(80)   X(80)   X(80)   X(80)   X(80)   X(80)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
MOREHEAD CITY  50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
MOREHEAD CITY  64 92   X(92)   X(92)   X(92)   X(92)   X(92)   X(92)
 
WILMINGTON NC  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
WILMINGTON NC  50 27   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)
WILMINGTON NC  64  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
MYRTLE BEACH   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN                                                    
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