Hurricane ARTHUR

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HURRICANE ARTHUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012014
1500 UTC THU JUL 03 2014

CORRECTED FORWARD SPEED

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER
* PAMLICO SOUND
* EASTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LITTLE RIVER INLET TO SOUTH OF SURF CITY

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH OF SURF CITY
* THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT
VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
* WESTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. ANY DEVIATION OF THE FORECAST TRACK TO THE
LEFT...OR AN INCREASE IN THE FORECAST SIZE OF ARTHUR WOULD LIKELY
REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF HURRICANE WARNINGS FOR ALL OR PART OF THE
HURRICANE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST NORTH OF THE WARNING
AREA...PRIMARILY IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND...SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ARTHUR.

INTERESTS IN NOVA SCOTIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ARTHUR.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.4N  78.5W AT 03/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  15 DEGREES AT   9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  981 MB
EYE DIAMETER  20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  50SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE  60SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS..110NE 110SE  70SW  70NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.4N  78.5W AT 03/1500Z
AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.8N  78.7W

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 33.8N  77.3W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  50SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE 110SE  70SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 36.3N  74.4W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE 110SE  80SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 39.4N  70.2W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  80SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...100NE 130SE 110SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 42.7N  66.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  90SE  90SW  60NW.
34 KT...130NE 150SE 150SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 48.5N  58.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...  0NE 150SE  60SW   0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 240SE 210SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 55.0N  50.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 60.0N  45.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.4N  78.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


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