Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Cent
er on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Depression EIGHTEEN-E


ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182013
200 PM PDT SAT NOV 02 2013
 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE IS
CLOSER TO THE DEEP CONVECTION THAN EARLIER...ALTHOUGH IT IS STILL
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL
WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 30 KT...BUT THE SYSTEM COULD BE A LITTLE
STRONGER. MICROWAVE AND OTHER SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE
CENTER HAS BEEN MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 5 KT. THIS
MOTION SHOULD BE TEMPORARY HOWEVER...AS A LARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH APPROACHING THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN IT TOWARD THE NORTH AND
NORTH-NORTHEAST BY LATE SUNDAY. ONLY SMALL CHANGES WERE MADE TO
THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK...AND THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO
THE LATEST ECMWF AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS. 

THERE IS STILL AMPLE TIME FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL
STORM. WIND SHEAR SHOULD DECREASE A LITTLE BIT DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO...WHICH WILL PROBABLY ALLOW FOR SOME STRENGTHENING.
HOWEVER...SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INCREASE BY
36H...WHICH WILL LIKELY CAUSE WEAKENING WHILE THE CYCLONE
APPROACHES MAINLAND MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY THE
SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ONE...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
GUIDANCE SUITE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MEXICO GIVEN THE SMALL...
BUT NOT NEGLIGIBLE...CHANCES OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS
OCCURRING SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/2100Z 17.7N 109.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  03/0600Z 18.5N 110.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  03/1800Z 20.3N 109.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  04/0600Z 22.9N 108.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  04/1800Z 25.5N 107.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  05/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Apr-2014 23:29:40 UTC