ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182013 800 AM PDT SAT NOV 02 2013 CONVECTION HAS BEEN ON THE INCREASE ON THE NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE DEPRESSION...BUT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES STILL SHOW THAT THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CONVECTIVE MASS. THERE HAS BEEN SOME EXPANSION OF THE CIRRUS CLOUDS EAST OF THE CENTER...SO PERHAPS THE EASTERLY SHEAR THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING THE DEPRESSION IS ON THE WAY DOWN. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED WILL REMAIN 30 KT AS A BLEND OF THE TAFB/SAB DVORAK ESTIMATES. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 4 KT. A TURN TO THE NORTH THEN NORTH-NORTHEAST IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO AN APPROACHING CLOSED LOW. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON THIS TRACK...AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. A 72H FORECAST IS INCLUDED FOR CONTINUITY...BUT THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY BE DISSIPATED BY THEN. IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH OF AN INCREASE IN WINDS FOR THE DEPRESSION TO BECOME A LOW-END TROPICAL STORM...AND THE LATEST GUIDANCE DOES HAVE A COUPLE OF MORE MODELS THAT SHOW THIS SOLUTION. THUS THE NEW FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW MODEST STRENGTHENING. SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INCREASE AFTER 36H...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO WEAKEN WHILE ITS APPROACHES MAINLAND MEXICO. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS NOT FAR FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE...WITHIN A FEW KNOTS OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. GIVEN THE CURRENT LACK OF ORGANIZATION AND THE LOW CHANCES OF SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING...THE CYCLONE IS UNLIKELY TO CAUSE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS OVER MEXICO. THUS...IT IS PRUDENT TO WAIT FOR ANY TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER INTERESTS IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND SINALOA SHOULD MONITOR THIS SYSTEM. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 17.6N 109.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 18.3N 109.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 19.6N 110.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 21.9N 109.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 04/1200Z 24.8N 107.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 05/1200Z 28.5N 105.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Apr-2014 23:29:40 UTC