Tropical Depression EIGHTEEN-E

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182013
800 AM PDT SAT NOV 02 2013

CONVECTION HAS BEEN ON THE INCREASE ON THE NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE
DEPRESSION...BUT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES STILL SHOW THAT THE CENTER
OF THE CYCLONE REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CONVECTIVE
MASS.  THERE HAS BEEN SOME EXPANSION OF THE CIRRUS CLOUDS EAST OF
THE CENTER...SO PERHAPS THE EASTERLY SHEAR THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING
THE DEPRESSION IS ON THE WAY DOWN.  THE INITIAL WIND SPEED WILL
REMAIN 30 KT AS A BLEND OF THE TAFB/SAB DVORAK ESTIMATES.  

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 4 KT.  A TURN TO THE
NORTH THEN NORTH-NORTHEAST IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS DUE TO AN APPROACHING CLOSED LOW.  MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON THIS TRACK...AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE
MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  A 72H FORECAST IS INCLUDED FOR
CONTINUITY...BUT THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY BE DISSIPATED BY THEN.
 
IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH OF AN INCREASE IN WINDS FOR THE DEPRESSION TO
BECOME A LOW-END TROPICAL STORM...AND THE LATEST GUIDANCE DOES HAVE
A COUPLE OF MORE MODELS THAT SHOW THIS SOLUTION.  THUS THE NEW
FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW MODEST STRENGTHENING.  SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INCREASE AFTER 36H...WHICH SHOULD
CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO WEAKEN WHILE ITS APPROACHES MAINLAND MEXICO. 
THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS NOT FAR FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE...WITHIN A
FEW KNOTS OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.  

GIVEN THE CURRENT LACK OF ORGANIZATION AND THE LOW CHANCES OF
SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING...THE CYCLONE IS UNLIKELY TO CAUSE
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS OVER MEXICO.  THUS...IT IS PRUDENT TO
WAIT FOR ANY TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AT THIS TIME.  HOWEVER
INTERESTS IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND SINALOA SHOULD MONITOR THIS
SYSTEM.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/1500Z 17.6N 109.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  03/0000Z 18.3N 109.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  03/1200Z 19.6N 110.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  04/0000Z 21.9N 109.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  04/1200Z 24.8N 107.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 72H  05/1200Z 28.5N 105.0W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  06/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 
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