Tropical Depression EIGHTEEN-E

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182013
200 PM PDT FRI NOV 01 2013
 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE DEPRESSION CONSISTS OF
MULTIPLE LOW-LEVEL SWIRLS WITHIN A LARGER CIRCULATION ENVELOPE. A
CURVED BAND FEATURE IS ATTEMPTING TO REFORM WEST OF THE CENTER...
ALTHOUGH THE BAND HAS BEEN BROKEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE INITIAL
WIND SPEED IS KEPT AT 30 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST SATELLITE
ESTIMATES. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH SEEMS PROBABLE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS SINCE THE DEPRESSION WILL BE OVER VERY WARM WATERS
WITH LIGHT OR MODERATE SHEAR. THE REGIONAL HURRICANE MODELS HAVE
BACKED OFF ON THEIR STRONGER STORM SOLUTIONS...AND HAVE COME MORE
INTO LINE WITH THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE...SHOWING ONLY MODEST
INTENSIFICATION. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE
INTENSITY CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

FIXES SUGGEST THE CENTER WAS A BIT SOUTHEAST OF MY PREVIOUS
POSITION...GIVING A LONG-TERM MOTION ESTIMATE OF 335/3...A BIT
SLOWER THAN BEFORE. THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE WEST-
NORTHWEST BY TOMORROW DUE TO A RIDGE BUILDING OVER MEXICO.
HOWEVER...THAT MOTION SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED WITH A LARGE CLOSED LOW
LIKELY CAUSING A SHARP TURN TO THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST TOWARD
SINALOA...AND PERHAPS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AGAIN SHIFTED WEST OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE...THOUGH IT STILL LIES JUST TO THE EAST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
THE CYCLONE WILL PROBABLY BE DISSIPATED BY 96H...BUT A POINT IS
GIVEN FOR CONTINUITY. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/2100Z 16.7N 108.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  02/0600Z 17.1N 108.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  02/1800Z 17.6N 110.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  03/0600Z 18.5N 110.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  03/1800Z 20.0N 110.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  04/1800Z 24.7N 107.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 96H  05/1800Z 28.0N 105.0W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  06/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 
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