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Tropical Depression EIGHTEEN-E


ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182013
200 AM PDT FRI NOV 01 2013
 
DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO HAS INCREASED AND BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED
AND BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  IN ADDITION...AN
ASCAT OVERPASS INDICATED THAT THE SURFACE CIRCULATION OF THE LOW
HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED.  THEREFORE...THE SYSTEM IS BEING
DESIGNATED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE AT THIS TIME.  BASED ON A DVORAK
ESTIMATE FROM TAFB...THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS SET TO 30
KT.  THERE IS FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW OVER THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION BUT OUTFLOW IS BEING INHIBITED
TO THE EAST.  THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS NOT VERY ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT
STRENGTHENING...WITH MOST OF THE MODELS ONLY MAKING THE CYCLONE A
LOW-END TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE MODEL CONSENSUS. 
BY 72 HOURS OR SO...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW AN ABRUPT INCREASE IN
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SO THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY HAVE BEGUN WEAKENING
BY THAT TIME.
 
BASED ON A BLEND OF FIXES FROM GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY AND
SCATTEROMETER DATA THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 350/6.  A
MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TO
CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST
DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.  AFTER THAT...A BROAD
MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST SHOULD INDUCE A
TURN TO THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST
IS VERY CLOSE TO THE LATEST MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND A LITTLE TO
THE RIGHT OF THE ECMWF SOLUTION.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/0900Z 16.4N 108.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  01/1800Z 17.3N 108.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  02/0600Z 17.8N 108.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  02/1800Z 18.2N 109.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  03/0600Z 19.0N 110.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  04/0600Z 22.0N 109.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  05/0600Z 24.5N 107.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
120H  06/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Apr-2014 23:29:40 UTC