Tropical Depression SEVENTEEN-E
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013
0300 UTC SUN OCT 20 2013
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN-E WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X 1 2 3 12 25 35
TROP DEPRESSION 11 11 8 11 18 22 18
TROPICAL STORM 88 76 59 50 43 42 42
HURRICANE 1 12 31 36 27 11 6
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 1 11 25 26 21 10 5
HUR CAT 2 X 1 5 8 4 1 1
HUR CAT 3 X X 1 2 2 X X
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 40KT 50KT 60KT 65KT 70KT 60KT 60KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6)
P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8)
BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 4( 8) 6(14) 4(18)
BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
MANZANILLO 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 5(11) 6(17) 4(21)
MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
L CARDENAS 34 X 4( 4) 17(21) 11(32) 11(43) 4(47) 1(48)
L CARDENAS 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 6(12) 3(15) X(15)
L CARDENAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
ZIHUATANEJO 34 X 7( 7) 19(26) 12(38) 11(49) 4(53) 1(54)
ZIHUATANEJO 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 7(15) 2(17) 1(18)
ZIHUATANEJO 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5)
ACAPULCO 34 1 6( 7) 12(19) 9(28) 13(41) 6(47) 1(48)
ACAPULCO 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 5( 9) 3(12) X(12)
ACAPULCO 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4)
P MALDONADO 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) 5(12) 10(22) 5(27) 2(29)
P MALDONADO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6)
P MALDONADO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
P ANGEL 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) 3(11)
HUATULCO 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6)
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FORECASTER BROWN
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