Hurricane RAYMOND
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HURRICANE RAYMOND FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013
1500 UTC MON OCT 21 2013
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TECPAN DE GALEANA TO LAZARO CARDENAS
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ACAPULCO TO TECPAN DE GALEANA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ACAPULCO TO TECPAN DE GALEANA
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 102.2W AT 21/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 954 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 90SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 102.2W AT 21/1500Z
AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 102.3W
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 16.4N 102.2W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 16.5N 102.3W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 16.5N 102.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 16.4N 102.7W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 16.0N 104.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 90NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 15.5N 107.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 15.5N 110.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 102.2W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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