ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER 41 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013 800 PM PDT TUE OCT 29 2013 DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH RAYMOND HAS DECREASED AGAIN THIS EVENING AS THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO FEEL THE IMPACT OF 25-30 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. A RECENT TRMM OVERPASS SUGGESTS THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BECOME ELONGATED WITH POSSIBLE MULTIPLE VORTICITY CENTERS. SINCE THERE IS NO DATA FROM THE CYCLONE CORE AND THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED... THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 40 KT. THIS COULD BE GENEROUS GIVEN THE CURRENT LACK OF CONVECTION. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 030/6. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES INTO AN AREA OF WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO...BUT A TOUCH FASTER THAN...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. A COMBINATION OF STRONG SHEAR...DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT SHOULD CAUSE RAYMOND TO DECAY TO A REMNANT LOW BY 36 HOURS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON THE PREMISE THAT CONVECTION WILL RE-DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING DIURNAL MAXIMUM AND SLOW THE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM. IF THIS DOES NOT HAPPEN...RAYMOND SHOULD DISSIPATE FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0300Z 19.1N 116.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 30/1200Z 19.8N 115.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 31/0000Z 20.4N 115.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 31/1200Z 20.8N 115.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 01/0000Z 21.0N 115.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BEVEN NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Apr-2014 23:29:39 UTC