Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm RAYMOND


ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER  39
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172013
800 AM PDT TUE OCT 29 2013
 
DESPITE RECENTLY PRODUCING A LARGE BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION...
RAYMOND IS STILL A HIGHLY SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE.  WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AND CLOUD-DRIFT WINDS SHOW THAT THE STORM IS LOCATED NEAR
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A STRONG JET STREAK...AND ANALYSES FROM THE
UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN INDICATE THAT THE SHEAR IS ABOUT 30 KT FROM
THE WEST-SOUTHWEST.  CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE FALLEN TO 3.0
FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND THE INITIAL WINDS ARE THEREFORE LOWERED TO
45 KT.  THE RAPID WEAKENING THAT BEGAN YESTERDAY HAS SLOWED DOWN...
BUT STRONG SHEAR...COOLER WATER...AND DRIER AIR SHOULD ALL
CONTRIBUTE TO A GRADUAL SPIN DOWN OF THE CIRCULATION.  THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AND SHOWS
RAYMOND BECOMING A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 36 HOURS AND DISSIPATING IN
ABOUT 4 DAYS.
 
THE CENTER HAS BEEN A LITTLE DIFFICULT TO LOCATE BENEATH THE
CONVECTIVE CLOUD SHIELD...BUT RAYMOND STILL APPEARS TO BE MOVING
GENERALLY NORTHWARD AT 005/5 KT.  THE STORM IS LOCATED NEAR THE
WESTERN EDGE OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE...BUT WEAK STEERING
CURRENTS SHOULD ONLY INDUCE A SLOW NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THE REMNANT LOW IS
THEN LIKELY TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY IN 2 TO 3 DAYS WELL TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS
IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT...AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST WERE REQUIRED ON THIS CYCLE.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  29/1500Z 18.3N 116.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  30/0000Z 18.8N 116.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  30/1200Z 19.6N 115.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  31/0000Z 19.9N 115.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  31/1200Z 20.0N 115.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  01/1200Z 20.0N 115.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  02/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Apr-2014 23:29:39 UTC