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Tropical Storm RAYMOND (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER  36
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172013
200 PM PDT MON OCT 28 2013
 
RAYMOND IS STILL PRODUCING A SIZEABLE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION...BUT
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE DUE TO
STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE
PLUMMETING...AND A BLEND OF FINAL-T AND CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS
FROM TAFB...SAB...AND THE ADT SUPPORTS DOWNGRADING RAYMOND TO A
60-KT TROPICAL STORM.  THE SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO ABATE...AND
RAYMOND SHOULD CONTINUE A RELATIVELY FAST WEAKENING TREND FOR THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO.  COUPLED WITH COOLER WATER AND DRIER AIR...THE
SHEAR SHOULD CAUSE RAYMOND TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY 48 HOURS AND
TO DISSIPATE IN ABOUT 4 DAYS.  ALL OF THE INTENSITY MODELS SHOW A
RAPID DECREASE IN WINDS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND THE UPDATED
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD A BIT TO KEEP
PACE WITH THE RECENT WEAKENING TREND.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS
THE MODEL CONSENSUS ICON...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE MODELS...IN
PARTICULAR THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE...SHOW EVEN FASTER WEAKENING THAN
INDICATED BELOW.
 
RAYMOND IS MOVING NORTHWARD...OR 005/6 KT...AROUND THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TOWARD A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH
LOCATED NEAR THE U.S. WEST COAST.  ONCE THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS
BEEN SHEARED AWAY...THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO BE
STEERED A LITTLE MORE SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST
BEFORE DISSIPATION.  THE 12Z CYCLES OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE MUCH
FASTER THAN EARLIER RUNS AND SHOW THE REMNANT LOW MOVING FARTHER
NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED.  THE NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN
NUDGED NORTHWARD...ESPECIALLY BEYOND 36 HOURS...BUT IT IS NOT AS
FAR NORTH AS SHOWN BY THESE MODELS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  28/2100Z 16.8N 116.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  29/0600Z 17.7N 116.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  29/1800Z 18.6N 116.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  30/0600Z 19.4N 115.7W   25 KT  30 MPH
 48H  30/1800Z 20.1N 115.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  31/1800Z 20.5N 114.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  01/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
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