Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Hurricane RAYMOND


ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
HURRICANE RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER  32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172013
200 PM PDT SUN OCT 27 2013
 
RAYMOND HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN...WITH THE EYE CLEARING OUT IN
VISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGERY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.  SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE T4.5/77 KT FROM TAFB AND T4.8/85 KT FROM
THE ADT AT 18Z...AND GIVEN THAT THE PATTERN HAS BECOME MORE
ORGANIZED EVEN IN THE PAST HOUR OR TWO...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
RAISED TO THE UPPER BOUND OF THE ESTIMATES.  RAYMOND SHOULD BE ABLE
TO AT LEAST MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY FOR ANOTHER 12 HOURS OR SO
BEFORE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR INCREASES TO ABOUT 20 KT.  AFTER THAT
TIME...GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT 36 HOURS...
FOLLOWED BY MORE RAPID WEAKENING WHEN THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT
BECOMES MORE HOSTILE.  SINCE RAYMOND STRENGTHENED A LITTLE MORE
THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...THE DEEP-LAYER STEERING SHOULD ALLOW IT
TO MOVE FARTHER NORTH THAN INDICATED IN EARLIER FORECASTS. 
IRONICALLY...THIS WILL MOVE THE CYCLONE INTO A HIGHER-SHEAR AND
LOWER-SST ENVIRONMENT MORE QUICKLY...AND THE NEW NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST NOW SHOWS A MORE SUDDEN DROP OFF IN THE WIND FORECAST
AFTER 36 HOURS.  RAYMOND COULD BE A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 4 AND
DISSIPATED BY DAY 5.  MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE FOLLOWS THIS
GENERAL SCENARIO...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE
INTENSITY CONSENSUS AND THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE.
 
RAYMOND APPEARS TO BE TURNING NORTHWESTWARD NOW THAT THE LARGE
MID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA IS SHUNTING THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EASTWARD OVER MEXICO.  THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS NOW 305/8 KT...AND THE HURRICANE SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD
BY 24-36 HOURS DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH.  ONCE ALL THE
CONVECTION HAS BEEN SHEARED AWAY IN A FEW DAYS...THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION IS LIKELY TO DRIFT NORTHWARD OR BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY DUE TO WEAK STEERING.  THE UPDATED NHC TRACK FORECAST IS
VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND LIES TO THE EAST OF THE
MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE IN DEFERENCE TO THE GFS...ECMWF...AND FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  27/2100Z 14.5N 116.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  28/0600Z 15.2N 117.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  28/1800Z 16.4N 117.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  29/0600Z 17.3N 117.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  29/1800Z 17.9N 116.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  30/1800Z 18.5N 116.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  31/1800Z 18.5N 116.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  01/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Apr-2014 23:29:39 UTC