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Hurricane RAYMOND (Text)

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HURRICANE RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER  31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172013
800 AM PDT SUN OCT 27 2013
 
SEVERAL RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES HAVE SHOWN THAT RAYMOND HAS A CLOSED
AND WELL-DEFINED EYE...BUT HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS HAS MOSTLY BEEN
OBSCURING THAT FEATURE IN CONVENTIONAL INFRARED IMAGERY.  STILL...
SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE RISEN TO T4.5/77 KT AND
T4.0/65 KT...RESPECTIVELY...AND THE LATEST UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN
ADT AND SATCON ESTIMATES ARE 82 KT AND 77 KT.  THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS THEREFORE RAISED TO 75 KT ON THIS ADVISORY.  

SINCE RAYMOND WAS ESTIMATED TO HAVE HAD AN INTENSITY OF 45 KT ONLY
18 HOURS AGO...THE HURRICANE IS CURRENTLY UNDERGOING RAPID
INTENSIFICATION.  THIS STRENGTHENING TREND COULD CONTINUE FOR A
LITTLE LONGER WHILE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE...BUT
DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO.  THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL ALSO LIKELY
BECOME LESS FAVORABLE WHILE RAYMOND MOVES CLOSER TO A DRIER AND
MORE STABLE AIR MASS AND COOLER WATERS LOCATED TO ITS NORTHWEST. 
THE UPDATED NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE
PREVIOUS ONE DURING THE FIRST 36 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE RECENT
INTENSIFICATION TREND BUT THEN IS NEARLY IDENTICAL ON DAYS 2
THROUGH 5.  THIS FORECAST IS RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY
CONSENSUS ICON AND THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE.

RAYMOND IS STILL LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE...BUT
THAT FEATURE IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN DUE TO AN AMPLIFYING
MID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA.  THE INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/9 KT...BUT RAYMOND SHOULD BE TURNING
NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS THE
TROUGH DEEPENS FURTHER.  ONCE RAYMOND WEAKENS TOWARD THE LATTER
PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE LEFTOVER LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN DRIFTING NORTHWARD DUE TO A WEAKER STEERING
REGIME.  THE 06Z GFS RUN NOW AGREES WITH THE EARLIER 00Z ECMWF RUN
IN SHOWING RAYMOND MAKING MORE NORTHWARD PROGRESS ON DAYS 3 THROUGH
5...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE NOW THAT RAYMOND IS STRONGER THAN
PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED.  THE UPDATED NHC TRACK FORECAST IS
THEREFORE A LITTLE EAST AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...
ESPECIALLY ON DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...AND LIES VERY CLOSE TO THE FLORIDA
STATE SUPERENSEMBLE SOLUTION.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  27/1500Z 14.2N 116.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  28/0000Z 14.9N 116.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  28/1200Z 16.0N 117.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  29/0000Z 17.1N 117.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  29/1200Z 17.9N 117.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  30/1200Z 18.8N 116.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  31/1200Z 19.5N 116.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  01/1200Z 20.0N 116.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
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FORECASTER BERG
 
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