Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm RAYMOND


ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER  28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172013
200 PM PDT SAT OCT 26 2013
 
THE CYCLONE CONSISTS OF A LARGE CURVED BAND WITH THE CENTER TUCKED
INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE BAND...WITH CONVECTION RECENTLY ON
THE INCREASE.  SATELLITE ESTIMATES HAVE NOT YET CHANGED
APPRECIABLY...SO THE INITIAL WIND SPEED WILL REMAIN 45 KT.  IT IS A
LITTLE BIT OF A MYSTERY WHY RAYMOND HAS NOT INTENSIFIED MUCH...BUT
AN ENVIRONMENT OF WARM WATER...LOW SHEAR...AND RELATIVELY MOIST AIR
SHOULD GENERALLY FAVOR STRENGTHENING FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  THE
INCREASE IN CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER COULD ALSO PORTEND ANOTHER
STRENGTHENING EPISODE...GIVEN INNER CORE FEATURES SEEN ON EARLIER
MICROWAVE IMAGES.  AFTER THE WEEKEND...DECREASING SSTS AND
INCREASING SHEAR WILL LIKELY INDUCE THE CYCLONE TO WEAKEN.  DESPITE
SEEMINGLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS...THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME DOWN
NOTABLY FROM SIX HOURS AGO WITH NO RELIABLE MODELS SHOWING RAYMOND
BECOMING A HURRICANE AGAIN.  GIVEN HOW RELUCTANT RAYMOND HAS BEEN
TO STRENGTHEN...THE NHC FORECAST WILL FOLLOW THAT MODEL TREND...BUT
STAY AT OR A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS TO PRESERVE
SOME CONTINUITY.
 
RAYMOND CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 9 KT.  THE STORM SHOULD
TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITHIN 24 HOURS AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD SOON
AFTERWARD WHILE IT ROUNDS THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF A RIDGE.  AFTER
RECURVATURE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO AN APPROACHING TROUGH...THERE
IS A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS ON WHAT HAPPENS TO A MUCH-WEAKENED
RAYMOND.  A MAJORITY OF THE SOLUTIONS SUGGEST A SLOW EAST TO
SOUTHEAST MOTION IS THE BEST IDEA...WHICH IS REASONABLE GIVEN THAT
RAYMOND WILL LIKELY BE A REMNANT LOW AT THAT TIME.  THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD AT
LONG RANGE.  
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  26/2100Z 13.1N 113.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  27/0600Z 13.2N 114.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  27/1800Z 13.8N 116.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  28/0600Z 14.7N 117.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  28/1800Z 15.8N 117.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  29/1800Z 17.1N 117.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  30/1800Z 17.5N 116.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  31/1800Z 17.0N 115.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Apr-2014 23:29:39 UTC