Tropical Storm RAYMOND

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TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER  27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172013
800 AM PDT SAT OCT 26 2013
 
THE DEEP CONVECTION OF TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND CONSISTS OF A LARGE
CURVED BAND WITH INDICATIONS FROM MICROWAVE IMAGERY OF A
DEVELOPING INNER CORE.  OF COURSE...THAT IS WHAT THE INTERPRETATION
OF THE SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS YESTERDAY AS WELL...AND YET THE STORM
HAS NOT INTENSIFIED.  THE TAFB AND SAB SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY VALUES REMAIN AT 3.5 AND 3.0...OR 55 AND 45 KT...
RESPECTIVELY...WHILE ADT IS AT 43 KT AND CIMSS AMSU IS AT
50 KT.  A BLEND OF THESE GIVES THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT.  THE
0926Z AMSU PASS ALSO ALLOWED FOR AN ADJUSTMENT OUTWARD OF THE
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND RADII FROM THE CIRA SIZE ANALYSES.

THE CYCLONE IS MOVING 270 DEGREES AT 9 KT...PRIMARILY DUE TO
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS
NORTHWEST.  THE RIDGE SHOULD SLIDE EASTWARD AS A ROBUST MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND BEGINS TO TURN
RAYMOND NORTHWARD IN ABOUT TWO DAYS.  WHILE THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS
FAIRLY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...THE MODELS FASTEST WITH RECURVATURE...
SUCH AS THE ECMWF...HAVE A MORE PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING RAYMOND. BY DAYS FOUR AND FIVE WHEN RAYMOND IS LIKELY
TO BE A REMNANT LOW...THE CYCLONE SHOULD MEANDER EASTWARD IN THE
WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS NEARLY THE SAME AS THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR MODERATELY CONDUCIVE FOR
INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT DAY AND A HALF WITH 28C
WATER...INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE...AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. 
THE ONLY IDENTIFIABLE FACTOR SOMEWHAT HOSTILE FOR DEVELOPMENT IS
THE WARM UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TEMPERATURES.  GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION
IS LIKELY WITH RAYMOND PEAKING AT OR NEAR CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE
INTENSITY.  BEGINNING AROUND 48 HOURS...THE VERTICAL SHEAR ABRUPTLY
INCREASES DUE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.  IT IS ANTICIPATED
THAT THE STRONGER SHEAR AND LESS CONDUCIVE THERMODYNAMICS SHOULD
LEAD TO THE CYCLONE BECOMING DECOUPLED WITH THE MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION ADVECTING OFF QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST AROUND DAY FOUR. 
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS NEARLY THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
AND IS BASED UPON A BLEND OF THE HWFI...DSHP...AND GFSI MODELS.
 
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  26/1500Z 13.2N 112.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  27/0000Z 13.3N 114.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  27/1200Z 13.7N 116.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  28/0000Z 14.4N 117.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  28/1200Z 15.6N 117.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  29/1200Z 17.5N 117.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  30/1200Z 18.0N 116.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  31/1200Z 18.0N 114.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
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FORECASTER LANDSEA
 
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