Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm RAYMOND


ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172013
200 PM PDT FRI OCT 25 2013

THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE STORM HAS NOT BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE
EARLIER TODAY. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 45 KT AND 55 KT
FROM SAB AND TAFB...RESPECTIVELY. THE ADVISORY WIND SPEED IS KEPT
AT 50 KT...BUT DATA FROM A RECENT ASCAT OVERPASS SUGGEST THAT THIS
MIGHT BE GENEROUS. RAYMOND WILL BE MOVING THROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT OF
LOW SHEAR AND WARM WATERS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND
STRENGTHENING TO A HURRICANE IS STILL PREDICTED. LATER IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD...INCREASING SHEAR AND MARGINAL SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS.  

ALTHOUGH THE CENTER FIXES HAVE SOME SCATTER...MY BEST ESTIMATE IS
THAT THE MOTION CONTINUES AT 240/7.  RAYMOND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS.
AFTERWARD...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWARD AND
MOVE THROUGH A BREAK IN THE RIDGE AND AHEAD OF A TROUGH TO THE
NORTHWEST.  NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
SHOWS A VERY SLOW MOTION SINCE THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION
OF RAYMOND COULD BE SHEARED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...LEAVING THE
LOW-LEVEL VORTEX TO MEANDER IN THE VICINITY OF 18-20N LATITUDE. 
THAT IS THE SCENARIO WHICH IS BEING SUGGESTED BY THE ECMWF AND GFS
MODELS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT STILL WEST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  25/2100Z 13.6N 109.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  26/0600Z 13.4N 111.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  26/1800Z 13.4N 113.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  27/0600Z 13.6N 114.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  27/1800Z 14.1N 116.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  28/1800Z 16.2N 117.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  29/1800Z 18.0N 116.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  30/1800Z 18.5N 116.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Apr-2014 23:29:38 UTC