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Tropical Storm RAYMOND


ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172013
800 AM PDT THU OCT 24 2013
 
A BURSTING PATTERN OF CONVECTION HAS BEEN OCCURRING NEAR THE
APPARENT CENTER OF RAYMOND DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.  ALTHOUGH
OVERNIGHT MICROWAVE AND EARLY-LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGES DO NOT
DEFINITIVELY SHOW THE CENTER...IT APPEARS TO BE CLOSE TO THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF A STRONG AREA OF CONVECTION.  SUBJECTIVE/OBJECTIVE
DVORAK ESTIMATES SUGGEST 35-45 KT AS A CURRENT WIND SPEED...AND
WITH THE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE INITIAL POSITION I HAVE ELECTED TO
KEEP 40 KT AS THE INTENSITY.  
 
RAYMOND SEEMS TO BE MOVING WESTWARD...WITH NO SIGN OF THE
SOUTH-OF-WEST MOTION OBSERVED YESTERDAY.  AS A RIDGE BUILDS TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE DO SUGGEST A RETURN
TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST MOTION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  AFTER THAT
TIME...A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC SHOULD ERODE THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE AND INDUCE A MORE POLEWARD MOTION OF
RAYMOND.  THE ECMWF IS BASICALLY ON ITS OWN SHOWING A SHARP
RECURVATURE OF THE CYCLONE BY 120W...WHILE MOST OF THE OTHER
RELIABLE GUIDANCE ONLY SHOW A NORTHWARD TURN BY DAY 5.  SINCE THE
ECMWF HAS BEEN THE BEST-PERFORMING SINGLE MODEL IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC THIS SEASON...IT SEEMS WISE TO WAIT UNTIL THE NEW 12Z MODEL
RUNS COME OUT BEFORE MAKING ANY LONG-RANGE CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.  THE NEW FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC
PREDICTION...BETWEEN TVCE AND THE ECMWF.
 
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS PERPLEXING THIS MORNING.  WHILE ALL OF THE
MODELS ARE SHOWING A DECREASE IN SHEAR WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER
WARM WATER...NONE OF THEM SAVE THE GFDL SHOW SIGNIFICANT
INTENSIFICATION.  PERHAPS SOME DRY AIR AND SOME SOUTHERLY SHEAR
WILL BE THE MAIN LIMITING FACTORS...BUT THESE DO NOT SEEM NEGATIVE
ENOUGH TO CAP STRENGTHENING THAT MUCH.  THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS
BASICALLY THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ONE...ON THE HIGH SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE...AND IT WOULD NOT SURPRISE ME IF THE FORECAST HAD TO BE
RAISED LATER TODAY.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  24/1500Z 14.8N 105.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  25/0000Z 14.7N 107.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  25/1200Z 14.5N 109.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  26/0000Z 14.0N 111.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  26/1200Z 13.6N 113.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  27/1200Z 13.5N 118.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  28/1200Z 14.7N 120.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  29/1200Z 16.0N 120.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Apr-2014 23:29:38 UTC