Hurricane RAYMOND

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HURRICANE RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172013
200 PM PDT TUE OCT 22 2013
 
DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
RAYMOND IS MUCH WEAKER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED. WHILE THE PEAK
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 80 KT AT 700 MB...DROPSONDE DATA SHOW THAT
THESE WINDS ARE NOT DOWN TO THE SURFACE VERY EFFECTIVELY...WHICH IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE DOWNWARD TREND IN THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION
SEEN TODAY. THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED AN OPEN EYEWALL...AND CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED NEAR THE CENTER AND THE COLDEST TOPS ARE
NOW LOCATED WELL SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER. BASED ON THE
AIRCRAFT DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 65 KT...A
LITTLE BELOW THE TYPICAL RATIO OF PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL TO SURFACE
WINDS. MODERATE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AFFECTING RAYMOND THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...
AND AFTER A LITTLE WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...LITTLE
CHANGE IS INDICATED DURING THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WHILE
RAYMOND REMAINS OVER WARM WATERS. THE NEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS
LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LOWER INITIAL
INTENSITY AND IS ROUGHLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.
 
WHILE RAYMOND DRIFTED SOUTHEASTWARD A LITTLE DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS...THE MOTION APPEARS TO BE STATIONARY ONCE AGAIN. LITTLE
MOTION IS EXECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO WHILE THE STEERING
FLOW REMAINS WEAK...BUT AFTER THAT TIME A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD NORTH OF RAYMOND. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN FASTER
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OR WESTWARD MOTION THAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. BY DAY 5 A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL
LOW WILL DIG SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND BEGIN TO ERODE
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW RAYMOND TO GAIN
SOME LATITUDE. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE THROUGH 48 HOURS AND CLOSE TO THE ECMWF AFTER THAT
TIME.
 
REGARDLESS OF THE PRECISE TRACK OF THE HURRICANE AND HOW CLOSE IT
GETS TO THE COAST...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...BRINGING THE
CONTINUED THREAT OF FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  22/2100Z 16.3N 101.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  23/0600Z 16.1N 102.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  23/1800Z 15.9N 103.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  24/0600Z 15.7N 104.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  24/1800Z 15.5N 105.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  25/1800Z 15.3N 108.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  26/1800Z 15.5N 112.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  27/1800Z 16.0N 115.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 
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