ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013 800 AM PDT TUE OCT 22 2013 THE CLOUD PRESENTATION OF RAYMOND HAS CONTINUED TO DETERIORATE...AS THE COVERAGE AND SYMMETRY OF THE COLD CONVECTIVE TOPS HAS DECREASED. ALSO...A 1032Z SSM/I PASS SHOWED THAT THE EYEWALL HAS ERODED ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 90 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES...AND THIS COULD BE A LITTLE GENEROUS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE RAYMOND AROUND 1800Z TODAY...AND SHOULD PROVIDE A GOOD ESTIMATE OF THE INTENSITY. MODERATE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AFFECTING RAYMOND THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND A GRADUAL DECREASE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE RAYMOND MOVES OVER WARM WATERS. THE NEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 72 HOURS AND IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS AND LGEM THROUGH THAT TIME. AT DAYS 4 AND 5 THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED. RAYMOND STILL APPEARS TO BE STATIONARY AND IS LOCATED IN A REGION OF WEAK STEERING BETWEEN A PAIR OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGES WELL TO THE EAST AND WEST. LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS...BUT IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH OF A NORTHWARD JOG TO BRING THE CENTER CLOSE TO THE COAST. THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BEGINNING TO BUILD NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF RAYMOND ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A SLOW WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DRIFT BEGINNING BY 24 HOURS. AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS...A STEADIER WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS LARGELY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSE TO THE ECMWF. REGARDLESS OF THE PRECISE TRACK OF THE HURRICANE AND HOW CLOSE IT GETS TO THE COAST...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...BRINGING THE CONTINUED THREAT OF FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 16.5N 101.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 16.4N 102.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 16.2N 102.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 24/0000Z 16.0N 103.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 24/1200Z 15.8N 104.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 25/1200Z 15.5N 108.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 26/1200Z 15.5N 111.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 27/1200Z 16.0N 113.5W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Apr-2014 23:29:38 UTC