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Hurricane RAYMOND (Text)

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HURRICANE RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172013
200 AM PDT TUE OCT 22 2013
 
THE EYE OF THE HURRICANE IS NO LONGER DISCERNABLE ON INFRARED
IMAGERY...AND THERE HAS BEEN SOME DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF DEEP CONVECTION.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS
REDUCED TO 100 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES
FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND OBJECTIVE ADT ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS.  AN
AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE
RAYMOND AROUND 1800 UTC TODAY...AND SHOULD PROVIDE A GOOD ESTIMATE
OF THE INTENSITY.  THERE HAS BEEN MODERATE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR AFFECTING THE SYSTEM AND UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS BEING IMPEDED
OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION.  THE SHIPS MODEL
SHOWS SOME DECREASE IN SHEAR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND RAYMOND
SHOULD TRAVERSE WARM WATERS THROUGH 120 HOURS.  THEREFORE IT IS
EXPECTED THAT THE CYCLONE WILL MAINTAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.  BASED ON THE CURRENT TRENDS...THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE DURING
THE EARLIER PART OF THE PERIOD.  LATER IN THE PERIOD...THE NHC
FORECAST IS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ONE.  THIS IS ALSO CLOSE TO
THE LATEST HURRICANE FORECAST IMPROVEMENT PROGRAM MODEL ENSEMBLE
PREDICTION.

ASIDE FROM SOME MEANDERING...THERE HAS BEEN ESSENTIALLY NO MOTION
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  RAYMOND IS LOCATED NEAR A COL IN THE
MID-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW...AND IT IS LIKELY TO REMAIN SO THROUGH
TODAY.  THEREFORE LITTLE MOVEMENT OF THE HURRICANE IS LIKELY FOR
THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...ALTHOUGH IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH OF A
NORTHWARD JOG TO BRING THE CENTER CLOSE TO THE COAST.  IN 36-48
HOURS...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE BEGINNING
TO BUILD TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF RAYMOND...WITH THIS RIDGE
BEING MAINTAINED THROUGH 5 DAYS.  THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD
CAUSE THE HURRICANE TO BEGIN MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
TOMORROW...AND TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT
2-5 DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ONE AND ALSO CLOSE TO THE LATEST ECMWF MODEL SOLUTION.

REGARDLESS OF THE PRECISE TRACK OF THE HURRICANE AND HOW CLOSE IT
COMES TO THE COAST...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...BRINGING THE
CONTINUED THREAT OF FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  22/0900Z 16.5N 102.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
 12H  22/1800Z 16.5N 102.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  23/0600Z 16.4N 102.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  23/1800Z 16.1N 103.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  24/0600Z 15.9N 104.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  25/0600Z 15.6N 106.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  26/0600Z 15.5N 109.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  27/0600Z 15.5N 113.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
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