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Tropical Depression PRISCILLA (Text)

ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION PRISCILLA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162013
200 PM PDT WED OCT 16 2013
 
THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION IN PRISCILLA HAS VANISHED...LEAVING
BEHIND ONLY A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL SWIRL OVERLAID BY MID-LEVEL
DEBRIS CLOUDINESS. A TIMELY 1717Z ASCAT-B PASS HELPED TO PROVIDE
BOTH AN ACCURATE POSITION OF PRISCILLA AND ALSO TO SHOW PEAK
SURFACE WINDS OF 20-25 KT. THE INTENSITY ANALYSIS IS REDUCED TO 25
KT.
 
THE CONVECTIVE STRUGGLES OF PRISCILLA ARE DUE TO IT TRAVERSING
LUKEWARM 26C WATER AND BEING EMBEDDED IN FAIRLY DRY AIR. ALONG ITS
PROJECTED PATH...THE VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD BECOME STRONG OUT OF THE
WEST SHORTLY...AND THE SSTS SHOULD GRADUALLY COOL. THUS A
TRANSITION TO A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW IS INDICATED IN A DAY.
HOWEVER...THIS COULD OCCUR SOONER IF THE DEEP CONVECTION DOES NOT
RE-EMERGE SOON.
 
PRISCILLA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT AROUND 8 KT. AS THE
CYCLONE COMPLETELY LOSES ITS DEEP CONVECTION...IT WILL BE CARRIED
ALONG IN THE LOW-LEVEL TRADEWIND FLOW. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED
UPON THE TVCE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS NEARLY THE SAME AS THAT
INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  16/2100Z 18.6N 120.3W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  17/0600Z 18.7N 121.4W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  17/1800Z 18.7N 122.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  18/0600Z 18.5N 123.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  18/1800Z 18.3N 125.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  19/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
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FORECASTER LANDSEA
 
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