Tropical Storm OCTAVE

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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   8A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152013
500 PM PDT MON OCT 14 2013
 
...HEAVY RAINS SPREADING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...24.6N 113.0W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM WSW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SANTA FE TO PUNTA ABREOJOS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
  
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.0 WEST. OCTAVE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF OCTAVE IS EXPECTED
TO APPROACH THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR IN THE WARNING
AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND OCTAVE
COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON TUESDAY BY THE TIME IT NEARS
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...OCTAVE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES
POSSIBLE...OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA...AND THE MAINLAND MEXICO STATE OF SONORA.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING
NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED WILL CONTINUE AFFECT THE WEST COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR INTO TUESDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 
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