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Tropical Storm OCTAVE (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152013
200 AM PDT MON OCT 14 2013
 
OCTAVE APPEARS TO BE MAINTAINING ITS STRENGTH. ALTHOUGH THE STORM
HAS MORE OF A SHEARED APPEARANCE THAT IT DID EARLIER...IT STILL IS
PRODUCING A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. AN ASCAT PASS AROUND 0430 UTC SHOWED MAXIMUM
WINDS NEAR 50 KT...AND THE LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE
FROM 45 TO 65 KT. BASED ON ALL OF THESE DATA...THE INITIAL WIND
SPEED ESTIMATE REMAINS 55 KT. OCTAVE HAS NOW CROSSED THE 26C
ISOTHERM AND IS MOVING INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND DRIER AIR. THESE EXPECTED HOSTILE
CONDITIONS SHOULD CAUSE OCTAVE TO STEADILY WEAKEN...AND THE CYCLONE
IS FORECAST TO BE A REMNANT LOW BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE BAJA
PENINSULA IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. 

THE TROPICAL STORM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 12 KT. A
SLOWER NORTHWARD MOTION IS FORECAST TO OCCUR LATER TODAY WHILE
OCTAVE ROUNDS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER EASTERN MEXICO. ON
TUESDAY...THE WEAK SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN EVEN FURTHER AND
TURN NORTHEASTWARD IN THE LIGHTER LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE NHC TRACK
FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND
IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST GFS RUN.
 
THE CURRENT TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS DO NOT WARRANT TROPICAL
STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA.  HOWEVER...INTERESTS IN THAT AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS STORM. RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH OCTAVE
IS BEGINNING TO SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THESE RAINS WILL CONTINUE FOR A DAY OR TWO.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  14/0900Z 21.6N 113.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  14/1800Z 23.2N 114.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  15/0600Z 24.8N 113.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  15/1800Z 25.9N 113.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  16/0600Z 26.5N 112.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  17/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
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FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
 
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