Tropical Storm OCTAVE

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TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152013
800 PM PDT SUN OCT 13 2013
 
THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF OCTAVE HAS LOST SOME ORGANIZATION SINCE
THE LAST ADVISORY. THE CLOUD PATTERN IS STARTING TO TRANSITION INTO
A SHEAR PATTERN...WITH LAST-LIGHT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SUGGESTING THAT THE CENTER WAS NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE
DEEPEST CONVECTION. A 0006 UTC SSMI/S PASS ALSO SUGGESTED AN EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD TILT OF THE VORTEX WITH HEIGHT...PRESUMABLY DUE TO
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AFFECTING THE CYCLONE. DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED SINCE 1800 UTC...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY
ESTIMATE IS KEPT AT 55 KT. OCTAVE HAS ALREADY REACHED THE 26C-
ISOTHERM AND SHOULD MOVE OVER SHARPLY COOLER WATERS DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE COOLING SEA SURFACE UNDERNEATH THE CYCLONE...
ALONG WITH AN ABRUPT INCREASE IN SHEAR IN 24 HOURS...SHOULD LEAD TO
SLOW WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND BEYOND THAT TIME.
THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS NEAR OR JUST BELOW THE BULK OF THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE...WITH OCTAVE FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW
IN 48 HOURS AND DISSIPATE SOON AFTER THAT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
LATEST GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE.
 
OCTAVE HAS MAINTAINED ABOUT THE SAME MOTION OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS...335/13.  A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WHILE IT MOVES AROUND THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER EASTERN MEXICO.  THE WEAKENING
CYCLONE SHOULD TURN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD BY TUESDAY AND CONTINUE TO
DECELERATE WHEN THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS SEPARATE FROM
ONE ANOTHER...LEAVING THE REMNANT LOW-LEVEL CENTER NEAR THE
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.  THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS
SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT AND MUCH FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
BUT NOT AS FAST AS THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE.
 
THE CURRENT TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS DO NOT WARRANT TROPICAL
STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA.  HOWEVER...INTERESTS IN THAT AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OCTAVE.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  14/0300Z 20.6N 113.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  14/1200Z 22.3N 114.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  15/0000Z 23.9N 113.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  15/1200Z 25.0N 113.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  16/0000Z 25.8N 112.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  17/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
 
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