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Tropical Depression FIFTEEN-E (Text)

ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152013
800 PM PDT SAT OCT 12 2013
 
THE LOW PRESSURE AREA SOUTH OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA HAS
DEVELOPED A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION AND ORGANIZED STRONG
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER.  THUS...ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED ON
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE
30 KT FROM SAB AND 45 KT FROM TAFB.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET
AT 30 KT...AND THIS COULD BE CONSERVATIVE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 310/10.  THE DEPRESSION
IS CURRENTLY BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND EAST AND AN
AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER TO THE SOUTHWEST.  THE DYNAMICAL MODELS
FORECAST THAT A LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES...ALONG WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
NEAR 21N 124W...SHOULD WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND ALLOW THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE TO TURN NORTHWARD AND START TO RECURVE INTO THE WESTERLIES. 
HOWEVER...THE MODELS ALSO SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE WILL SHEAR APART
AFTER 36-48 HOURS...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER MOVING VERY SLOWLY
NEAR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.  THE TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS
THIS SCENARIO...SHOWING A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 24 HOURS...
FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST WITH A DECREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED.  THE FORECAST TRACK LIES NEAR THE CENTER OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD
ALLOW CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  AFTER THAT...
THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE OVER DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AND ENCOUNTER INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  THIS SHOULD CAUSE
WEAKENING...WITH THE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW
AFTER 72 HOURS.  THE FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE
INTENSITY CONSENSUS.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE DEPRESSION COULD
STRENGTHEN MORE THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST BEFORE REACHING COLDER
WATER.

THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY DO NOT REQUIRE ANY TROPICAL
STORM WATCHES FOR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AT THIS TIME. 
HOWEVER...WATCHES COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THIS AREA ON
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IF THE CYCLONE GETS STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  13/0300Z 16.1N 110.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  13/1200Z 17.4N 111.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  14/0000Z 19.4N 112.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  14/1200Z 21.1N 113.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  15/0000Z 22.4N 113.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  16/0000Z 24.5N 112.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  17/0000Z 25.5N 112.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  18/0000Z 26.0N 111.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
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