Tropical Depression NARDA
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142013
800 PM PDT TUE OCT 08 2013
NARDA IS BARELY HANGING ON TO ITS STATUS AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE
LAST CLUSTER OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER DISSIPATED A FEW HOURS
AGO...AND LAST-LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGES THE CONVECTION-FREE CIRCULATION
MOVING INTO A STRATOCUMULUS FIELD. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
CONTINUE TO DECREASE...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE
30 KT...WHICH COULD BE GENEROUS. ALTHOUGH MOVING OVER MARGINALLY
WARM WATERS...NARDA IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING WESTERLY
VERTICAL SHEAR WHILE IT SIMULTANEOUSLY MOVES INTO AN EVEN DRIER AND
MORE STABLE AIR MASS. IF NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION RETURNS
SOON...NARDA IS LIKELY TO BE DECLARED A REMNANT LOW IN 12 HOURS OR
LESS.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NEARLY THE SAME AS BEFORE...295/10. NOW THAT
THE CIRCULATION OF NARDA HAS BECOME SHALLOW...THE CYCLONE IS
FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN WESTWARD AND THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTARD
IN THE LOW-LEVEL TRADES UNTIL DISSIPATION. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS...BUT NOT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 09/0300Z 16.9N 128.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 17.1N 129.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 10/0000Z 16.9N 129.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 10/1200Z 16.7N 130.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 11/0000Z 16.4N 131.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 12/0000Z 15.6N 132.8W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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