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Tropical Storm NARDA (Text)

ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142013
200 PM PDT TUE OCT 08 2013
 
NARDA IS QUICKLY ON ITS WAY TO BECOMING NADA.  SATELLITE PICTURES
SHOW AN EXPOSED SWIRL ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A SMALL AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE DROPPING...AND
SUPPORT AN INITIAL WIND SPEED OF ABOUT 35 KT...WHICH COULD BE
GENEROUS.  DRY AIR ALOFT...INCREASING WIND SHEAR...AND MARGINAL
SSTS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN NARDA.  THE NHC WIND FORECAST
IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...ALTHOUGH THE TIMING OF
IT BECOMING A REMNANT LOW HAS BEEN ADVANCED SIGNIFICANTLY GIVEN
RECENT TRENDS AND MODEL GUIDANCE.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE...295/11.  THE STORM
SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE WEST BY TOMORROW AS IT BECOMES MORE STEERED
BY THE LOW-LEVEL TRADES.  THE BIGGEST FORECAST DIFFERENCE IS IN HOW
MUCH IT SLOWS DOWN BY EITHER BECOMING ENTRAINED WITHIN THE
ITCZ...LIKE THE ECMWF FORECAST...OR STAYING SEPARATE...LIKE THE GFS
SOLUTION.  THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING A BIT SLOWER AND FARTHER
SOUTH...AND THE NHC FORECAST WILL BE MOVED IN THAT DIRECTION.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  08/2100Z 16.3N 127.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  09/0600Z 16.6N 128.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  09/1800Z 16.7N 129.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  10/0600Z 16.6N 130.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  10/1800Z 16.4N 130.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  11/1800Z 16.0N 132.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  12/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 
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