Hurricane MANUEL

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BULLETIN
HURRICANE MANUEL ADVISORY NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132013
200 AM PDT THU SEP 19 2013
 
...MANUEL CRAWLING NORTHWARD VERY NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...24.8N 108.2W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM NW OF ALTATA MEXICO
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SE OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
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CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LA CRUZ TO TOPOLOBAMPO
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF TOPOLOBAMPO TO HUATABAMPITO
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MANUEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.2 WEST. MANUEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H. A SLOW NORTHWARD
MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF MANUEL
IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE A SMALL DISTANCE INLAND OVER WESTERN
MEXICO IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
 
MANUEL IS A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM.
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
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WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
SINALOA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN SONORA WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
AREA.
 
RAINFALL...MANUEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 5 TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN OVER
THE MEXICAN STATE OF SINALOA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15
INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. MANUEL IS ALSO EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AN
ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE STATE OF NAYARIT.
 
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
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NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 AM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 
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