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Tropical Depression MANUEL


ZCZC MIATCPEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION MANUEL ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132013
800 PM PDT TUE SEP 17 2013
 
...MANUEL GRADUALLY GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON WEDNESDAY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.0N 107.7W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM W OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM E OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MAZATLAN TO ALTATA
* CABO SAN LUCAS TO SAN EVERISTO
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION MANUEL
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.7 WEST.  THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF MANUEL IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN WEST OF THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...THEN APPROACH THE EAST COAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND MANUEL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AGAIN 
ON WEDNESDAY.
 
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM MEXICO AND SHIPS NEARBY INDICATE THE
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...MANUEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN OVER
PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF SINALOA AND NAYARIT. IT IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 5 TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
 
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE WEST-CENTRAL
COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE WATCH AREA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITHIN THE WATCH AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Apr-2014 23:29:31 UTC