Tropical Storm MANUEL

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TROPICAL STORM MANUEL SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132013
1800 UTC WED SEP 18 2013
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH ALONG
THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO FROM LA CRUZ TO TOPOLOBAMPO.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LA CRUZ TO TOPOLOBAMPO
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MAZATLAN TO TOPOLOBAMPO
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CABO SAN LUCAS TO SAN EVARISTO
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA....IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.6N 107.9W AT 18/1800Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT   4 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE  40SE  20SW  20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.6N 107.9W AT 18/1800Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 107.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 24.0N 108.2W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  20NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 24.6N 108.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW  10NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  20SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 25.2N 108.6W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW  10NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  20SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 25.2N 108.9W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  20SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 24.9N 109.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW  40NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 24.0N 110.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.6N 107.9W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH
 
 
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