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Tropical Depression MANUEL (Text)

ZCZC MIATCMEP3 ALL
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION MANUEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132013
0300 UTC WED SEP 18 2013
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MAZATLAN TO ALTATA
* CABO SAN LUCAS TO SAN EVERISTO
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 107.7W AT 18/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT   5 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 107.7W AT 18/0300Z
AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 107.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 23.4N 108.2W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 23.9N 109.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE   0SW  20NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 24.3N 109.6W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 24.6N 110.1W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 24.5N 111.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 23.9N 111.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.0N 107.7W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
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